Free Agency And Draft Rumors: Panic At The Workouts

Things that people think might be true but probably aren't.

Photo by Mark Timberlake on Unsplash

It is, in fact, slop season.

I’m not entirely sure why the NBA pretends like its rules and moratoriums matter or are enforced in any meaningful way. Agents start working phones for extensions and new deals as soon as the regular season ends.

Offseason plans start to firm up in May; teams examine both the draft and free agency landscapes as components to decide how they want to shape their roster and then adapt accordingly.

And as those conversations start to happen, things start to leak.

I’ve discussed this before, but I don’t try to cosplay as Marc Stein, Jake Fischer, the ESPN Tims (Bontemps and Macmahon), Windhorst, or any other major player. I know just enough people to hear just enough things to try and chase down another word on it.

These are things I believe to be at least in the realm of accuracy from talking to people around the league. That said, everything right now is laden with bullshit.

SET THE MARKET AND THEN BLOW IT UP

Now that I've said that, I’ll start with things I’m suspicious of. I’ve done this enough times to know that this is when teams start wanting to figure out the market for assets.

The two big ones are draft picks and players coming up for an extension in the next year. If you’re not sold that you want to tie up money long-term on a guy, and no one is really sure with almost any player in the new CBA, then you’re going to test the market.

But it’s usually not even about seeing what you could get so you can get that return, but instead evaluating what a player was worth before and after getting paid.

“You set the market before and after he gets paid to use for evaluating returns and offers,” an executive told me after I whiffed on interpreting one.

I’ve been suckered a few times into believing a team was shopping or listening to offers for a player, when in reality, they were just doing due diligence before the player's extension.

If you hear a team is taking offers for Keegan Murray, Shaedon Sharpe, or Jabari Smith jr., they might be shopping them, or they might be just setting that market before forking over the new money.

EVERYONE WANTS TO TRADE UP/DOWN, EXCEPT NOT REALLY

You do this long enough, and you get a sense of the rhythms of the draft.

This is the time of year when everyone is trying to see what they can get with their pick. You never know.

This year, I think it is particularly interesting because the Thunder, Spurs, and Rockets own so many going forward that if you’re a team willing to move it, you might get more than you’d normally think. It’s a good draft, too.

“You can’t move that pick, you need talent!”

If you think VJ Edgecombe, Trey Johnson, etc., are franchise cornerstones, then yes, take them. But if you look at your options, and you’re so far away… does this pick help you more than multiple picks?

With that, let’s talk about Charlotte.

Charlotte’s probably keeping the 4. It makes more sense to just add another good player. If he helps Brandon Miller and/or LaMelo Ball¹, great. If he’s the sneak superstar and best player in the draft? Awesome. What a win.

However, league sources have stated that they have taken calls for the four and not shut them down.

The Hornets seem so far away that I don’t mind the idea of a move back if there’s another player they really like in a lower tier (who they could just take with the four, believe in your scouting), as well as other assets. The Hornets have made it clear to teams they’re willing to take on bad contracts and trade some of their veterans in exchange for assets, but haven’t been able to get bites on bait.

There’s always the possibility of a name they weren’t expecting to fall does, like Dylan Harper.

Some other alleged pick intel:

• Spurs are willing to move 14th for a veteran

• Houston is open to moving the 10th pick for immediate help or, of course, in a big move

THE ACE BAILEY CONVO

The Sixers are sending out mixed signals about that third pick. I’ve heard they’re willing to move it for a star upgrade, want to keep it, and are fine with taking Ace Bailey, and that they are not fans and may take VJ Edgecombe instead. All options are obviously on the table for a team in their position. So that clears that up.

One Western Conference team not in contention is said to be interested in Bailey and trying to find ways to move up to get him. That team has some assets the Sixers would probably like but aren’t going to be wowed by. It’s a good starting place for a three-team Paul George trade, though.