How Orlando Split The Gap With The Bane Trade
Memphis did what it had to do.
A Father’s Day write-up on the Magic-Memphis Bane Trade (THE FIRE RISES). Some rumor mill rumblings coming Monday.
THE MAGIC SPLIT THE GAP
The biggest problem for the Magic headed into both the trade deadline and this offseason was that their problem wasn’t simple. The Rockets need a go-to offensive scoring engine. That’s hard to land, but not hard to find. The Thunder last offseason needed a low-usage, high-rebound big man. That’s hard to land, but not hard to find.
The Magic, though, had to slide a player through a very narrow lane. They needed
Someone, anyone who can shoot, who can put the round thing through the circle with the big net on it.
Someone who could do so without needing the ball in his hands a ton, because you want the ball in the hands of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. So someone who can score with a low usage and time of possession rate.
BUT! You also needed someone who can handle the ball in the minutes without those two together so they don’t have to bring the ball up and set the offense, and score. You needed someone who could play the point guard role… but not a point guard.
You needed someone who fit the culture of caring about defense and hyper-professionalism.
You needed someone young enough to grow with the rest of the roster.
Desmond Bane is…
A career 18-point per game scorer who averaged 19 last season, a career 41 percent three-point shooter who shot 39 percent in a down season.
A player who generated 66% of his offense outside of pick and roll and isolation, including 17 percent of his total offense on spot-up opportunities.
A player who also had 654 pick-and-roll possessions with a 0.96 points per possession rate (ranked “good” by Synergy) with a five-dimes-per-game average.
A mature, responsible player who always owned up to the team’s failures even when Ja and Dillon would pout and not speak to the media, a guy everyone not named Santi Aldama seemed to get along with and like playing with.
26 years old.
He’s perfect.
He splits the triple-team for them.
We look at “FOUR FIRST ROUND PICKS” but let’s break it down.
Are the players you get with the picks the valuable part? Because Orlando’s going to be drafting top ten over the next five years, barring season-ending injuries.
Yes, one of those players might wind up being a black swan bloomer who turns into an All-Star on a rookie-scale contract. That’s possible. Memphis might draft a guy who everyone says “Orlando could have had (whoever).”
But the vast majority of those picks are not that; they are at best rotation guys. And for a team like Orlando, they become “players you can’t get minutes for.” So they sit on the bench and don’t improve in their trade value, and don’t get experience to make themselves better. They are just roster spots you had to take up.
“But the picks are the value part.” You could trade two picks in two deals or one pick in four deals, etc.
Yes! Those trades might even get you a player as good as… Desmond Bane!
Orlando faces an uphill climb with getting guys who want to play in Orlando, who want to join a young team, who want to be part of this specific team.
None of those picks have the value of a guy who fits your culture and fits your basketball needs.
Desmond might not shoot well. KCP was a great shooter until he arrived in Orlando, and then he had his worst season. There’s real tension to improve the offense not just in the results but the process. Paolo Banchero, sources say, is frustrated with the offense.
However, the most likely outcome here is that Orlando acquires a component that makes everything easier for everyone, and the offense undergoes some reinvention with the addition of new pieces. It improves to league-average, ultimately making the team look like a contender.
From a financial perspective, Desmond is expected to earn $36 to $42 million per year, with the cap rising with the new media deal over the next four years. Banchero is extension-eligible next year. Franz is locked in below $50 million until the last year of his extension. This is a little on the high side and is going to make the back end of Orlando’s depth worse, but it’s a structure they can work with.
This was the move they needed to make.
MEMPHIS DID THE SAFE, RESPONSIBLE THING
I am constantly skeptical and critical of analysis by others based on what I know is a pre-existing bias, so I will cop to it here.
It is hard for me not to view this through the lens of Memphis’ infatuation with whatever they think Zach Edey will wind up being.
“Why do you need Desmond Bane taking up shots when you can give Zach Edey post-ups?”
“KCP will give Edey a pure floor spacer, and Cole Anthony gives him another guard to feed him in pick and roll!”
But ultimately, this was a deal I saw coming for a while, and it was the right kind of trade. You can’t have Ja and Jaren and Desmond on these kinds of extensions with a market like Memphis, with ZACH EDEY’S MAX EXTENSION on the horizon.
It changes the makeup of the team to shake things up while still building around Ja and the things they took back help the team in the immediate and in the future. They can move one of the picks and KCP’s expiring for an upgrade.
The team didn’t want to run things back after how the season ended. They got more flexible, added two good veterans, and the picks will help them if they want to add a third star (which they can’t afford).
They got worse. That’s the reality. They will hope to come out better, and it’s possible. KCP can have a bounce-back season. Cole’s a great backup point guard. They made the move that the CBA suggests they needed to make. So that’s something, I guess.
One more thing… the two things I heard from multiple people around the league around Memphis were at odds with one another. The first was that they were planning a total teardown, trading Bane and Jackson, and starting over. That never seemed likely, but that was the rumor. Then there were those who believed they were only looking for moves around the margins. That didn’t happen.
I only share this in the event that conversations go sideways with Jackson’s extension for some reason, or with Morant's desires to stay in Memphis. Maybe the better lesson is no one knows anything.