Jimmy Butler And How To Read Trade Reports

A Christmas Miracle Everyone Should Have Expected

Jimmy Butler wants out.

When you’re trying to process trade rumors, sometimes you need to look at the bigger picture and link things together.

So let’s look at the whole picture.

There were rumors in league circles last year that Miami wasn’t going to shell out the massive extension Butler wanted, and that he wasn’t thrilled about it. But the deadline came and went, with Miami just competitive enough to justify hoping for another fluke Finals run.

Butler and the Heat came to something of an accord in the summer. The Heat would support Butler and keep him if he lowered his asking price. He was happy to play out the last year of his deal because he loves Miami and it’s where he wanted to play, and he could work to increase his value on the market, or convince them to pay him.

Maybe it’s just hindsight, but it seems easy to have predicted this wouldn’t end well. After all:

But eventually, Jimmy started doing what Jimmy does, expressing unease and you started to hear about potential trade conversations. You even had Butler’s agent, Bernie Lee, dressing down Charania on Twitter.

This week was when things ramped up. Monday, Marc Stein reported Miami’s side on his Substack, which turned the temperature up.

That’s a shot across the bow. “You’re not good enough for teams to clear their decks for you at this point with how this CBA works. The market isn’t there for you. You’re going to need us for what you want.”

Part of my read on Miami’s decision to fire that shot is based on the curious rumor in league circles that Brooklyn, with the ability to do just that and clear the decks for Butler, was a real trade option and a team Butler would be interested in despite their being miles from contention.

That trade makes no sense to anyone for Brooklyn (not ready to contend) or Butler (not in a position to sit around on a rebuilding team) but nonetheless, it’s out there.

So Miami sends a message that they won’t be bullied.

Then, on Christmas Day, on national television, with millions of viewers at home, Charania reports the following:

Don’t read this as an independent action. Read it as a reaction to Miami’s reaction to the reports about Butler.

Notice the language. “Prefers.” Not “demands.”

Why? This is a negotiation as much as it is a snipe fest. Butler’s camp is leaving open the possibility of a long-term reconciliation with the Heat if they give him the money he wants and feels he deserves.

You can change your preference. You can’t “undemand” a trade. You can change your mind, but once you’ve done that, you’ve let the locker room know “I’m out.” You’ve put the organization in a corner.

So of course, Riley got fed up and issued an actual statement.

Jimmy Butler then missed the game vs. the Magic with “return to conditioning.”

Maybe that’s fine. Maybe that’s a signal. Maybe it’s both.

Miami is not doing the wrong thing here. Keeping Butler is the best option. It is the right decision not to give him a massive long-term deal at his age with his miles.

Unfortunately, they tethered themselves to an irrational actor, and one that has wreaked chaos everywhere he’s been. They withstood those winds for a long time, longer than every other team has. But now it’s their turn to reap the whirlwind.

This shapes up as an incredible battle between Riley’s unique stubbornness and Butler’s unique brand of chaos.

But regardless of who wins, don’t think that any of these moves are made in a vacuum. This is all one large chemical reaction, and no one knows what the end product will be.