NBA Playoff Deep Thoughts And Crazy Ramblings

Matchups, matchups, matchups

Photo by Scott May on Unsplash

What I’m watching in each series from a matchup standpoint.

BUCKS-PACERS

• How the Bucks defend the Myles Turner pick-and-pop. Indiana doesn’t run this as much as I think they should. Brook Lopez always drops and Turner’s always wide open. He shot 1-of-8 from 3 in a Pacers win in March and 2-of-10 in a Bucks win four days later. They can go to it any time.

  • This is always the kind of thing that baffles me when teams don’t just spam it. If you force them to get out of drop coverage, Brook’s impact evaporates. But Hali is not deliberate enough. Not yet, anyway.

• Siakam’s ISO defense. I was really surprised when I noticed teams attacking Siakam one on one down the stretch of the season. Now, if this is Kyle Kuzma, it’s not really a concern:

  

  • But I’m still curious if Siakam can be the kind of defensive forward he needs to be in this series.

• Will Doc put together the right rotations?

• Three shooters and Giannis. That’s the formula. The Pacers don’t take many threes (21st in three-point rate). They don’t allow you to, either (5th in opponent 3-point rate). If the Bucks can generate open looks and knock them down, they’re live.

• If I’m a Bucks fan, I don’t want to see Dame in this series. He helps with the three-point rate, sure. But defensively, it gives the Pacers a weakpoint to pick at and force help. There’s a pathway here without Dame. I think Dame is necessary against Cleveland. I don’t think he is vs. the Pacers and in fact I think he’s a negative in this matchup.

• Haliburton pull-up. Welcome back, my friends, to the Brook Lopez drop coverage in the playoffs show. Now Brook will play up a little bit more with Hali but it can still lead to possessions like this:

  • This is one reason I actually like Portis in the Hali minutes a little better? Take this play for example. Hali scores here, but it’s a tough shot with GTJ on his hip and a high drop instead of Brook’s uneasiness that far up.

• PREDICTION: Bucks in six. I really like this matchup with how this Bucks team is built, after I loved the Pacers’ build against last year’s Bucks. If Dame comes back, I flip to Pacers in less than seven.

KNICKS-PISTONS

• Cade’s going to EAT in this series. Full-on Italian buffet. He consistently showed a willingness to hunt down Brunson whenever he was on the floor. When they blitzed him, Cade is tall enough to make the crosscourt reversal and a good enough passer to hit the roll man. Duren, surprisingly, is actually pretty adept as a short-roll passer; I was impressed with how he handled it in-season.

• So even if the Knicks decide to sell out, the end-result is worse because it means putting the back line in rotation which leads to corner three attempts.

• The alternative, which the Knicks tried, is having his primary defender go under the screen. Cade just shoots on those, because he can hit the pull-up drifting left or right.

• The better alternative is to have Jalen drop in coverage and have Mikal Bridges (their best defender on Cade regular season) trail. If you can push Cade all the way to the rim, you have a chance because Cade’s a poor finisher at the rim. Your problem there is that now you have to help down because Jalen can’t mess with Duren on the roll or Stewart inside. And you wind up giving up the three anyway.