NBA Playoff Picture East: Who Do Contenders Want To Play And Avoid?
A look at the landscape heading into the week.
Let’s do some Magic Numbers and playoff scenarios on a Sunday. Numbers as of Sunday March 16 at 5:10 p.m. ET.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Clinched playoff spot
Clinched top-four seed
Magic number for a top-3 seed is 2
Magic number for the 1-seed is 7
Magic number for homecourt in the Finals is 15
I’m so impressed with Cleveland. When they plateaued in January I thought they were headed for the usual pattern. A fun team emerges, rules for three months, the special chemistry starts to go haywire with injuries and how hard it is to maintain, and then they just wind up being good-not-great with a great record by the end.
But since then, well, lookeehere. They’re on track to finish as an elite defense, and the offense has maintained. I’m so impressed that the Cavs are going to finish with 65-plus wins and are a better team than when they started the season on a win streak.
Prefer to Play: Miami, Orlando, Milwaukee
Prefer to Avoid: Boston, Atlanta, Indiana
The Pacers are one of just two Eastern Conference teams that have a positive net rating in their games vs. the Cavaliers. They’re just agents of chaos and can get you out of your preferred playstyle better than any team in the league. I put Atlanta here just because of voodoo, but both matchups were when Jalen Johnson was available, and the Hawks also have wins vs. the Knicks and Celtics.
Boston I continue to wonder about. Can the Cavaliers stay disciplined enough in a series while Boston attacks Garland’s size to get them to overhelp? The way series like this usually goes is rack up two to shooting variance for either team, one to tactical adjustments for both teams. That’s four. The rest comes down to the margins, and that winds up being Boston’s math advantage vs. Cleveland’s overall talent.
Pritchard’s EPM is just off the charts given his role (and their very transparent efforts to get him Sixth Man) and yet Jerome has him.
Boston can find another gear, but theoretically so can Cleveland.
Milwaukee’s an interesting one. Cleveland has had the edge in this matchup the last two seasons. The double-big lineup that’s more athletic and versatile causes some issues and they can space and stretch the Bucks. But Milwaukee’s physicality and three-point shooting would be an interesting counter.
Overall, Cleveland should be favored in any matchup that isn’t Boston.
BOSTON CELTICS
Clinched playoff spot
Magic number for a top-four seed is 5
Magic number for a top-two seed is 10
They’ll be the two, that’s done. A 10-5 run to close even if the Knicks won out is easy work for Boston.
They don’t need to worry about the Thunder losses, they got the up the shots they wanted. They can trust those will drop over the course of a series.
Prefer To Play: Knicks, Heat
Prefer to avoid: Cavs. Maybe Pacers. That’s it.
There are just no matchups the Celtics are at a deep disadvantage. They can play small, big, slow, or fast.
They don’t want to see teams that can limit their three-point rate. Orlando fits that category but they just don’t have enough offense to bring a serious challenge.
NEW YORK KNICKS
CLINCHED a play-in spot
Magic number for a playoff spot is 6
Magic number for a top-four seed is 11, 16 to play
They’ll be a top-four seed no matter what. An 8-8 finish (.500) still gets them top-four with three more Pacers losses.
If they want to slide and get out of Boston’s bracket, they can make that decision and probably get there, but the Cavaliers have busted them just as badly this season. It’s also not how Thibs does, you know, anything.
Prefer To Play: Bucks, Pacers, Heat (too much offense for those teams)
Prefer To Avoid: Anyone with a championship pulse: Celtics, Cavaliers
Their most likely matchup is Detroit, which is going to be fascinating. There’s a big athleticism gap between those teams. But the Knicks are still a much better overall team. This smells like one of those “Detroit takes one of the first two and we have a series and Cade makes a name for himself but the better team wins in 6 or 7” deals.
I just can’t find any way they get out of second round. You probably want Cavs over Celtics if you’re the Knicks, but either is probably the end of the road.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Magic number of two for a play-in spot (lock)
Magic number of ten for a playoff spot (near lock)
Magic number of 15 for a top-four seed
Bucks’ win over Pacers secures tiebreaker which gives them some breathing room vs. the Pacers and Pistons.
I can never tell if the Bucks are coming or going towards contention.
Prefer To Play: Heat, Pistons, Magic
Prefer To Avoid: Knicks, Cavaliers, Pacers (?)
I don’t know whether to put the Pacers on the avoid list. Those games always seem perilous for the Bucks but they are also 3-0 in those games. Maybe it’s just a better matchup than it was last year with that personnel.
They destroy Miami, the Pistons, and Magic because they are both big and physical and more skilled offensively.
The Knicks, for some reason, have their number, and the pick and roll of Brunson-and-Kat was created in a lab to counter their defensive structure.
Boston should probably be on here, but I’m unwilling to do so. I think the Bucks matchup very well with how Boston is built. But then, the Bucks might give up 50 threes a night, so…
INDIANA PACERS
Magic number for play-in is 3 (lock)
Magic number for top-6 playoff spot is 10 (lock)
Indiana made a really strong push to stabilize after their rough start, but have fallen back a bit. A good push can get them homecourt for the first round, but that’s about it. They won’t catch Knicks.
Prefer To Play: Heat, Magic, Pistons, maybe Cavs
Prefer to Avoid: Knicks, Celtics, Bucks (?)
They are agents of chaos and have a good chance of disrupting anyone. To actually pull off the upset they need so many things to go their way, but this team is dangerous if any luck bends towards them. They will ruin your month if you catch them at the wrong time. They also might lose in the first round to the Bucks in like five games.
DETROIT PISTONS
Magic number two for a play-in spot (lock)
Magic number eleven for a playoff spot, top-6 (near-lock)
They’re going to be the 5 or the 6. I’m not sure if there’s a better path between the two. In the six, you get the Knicks who seem very put together with popsicle sticks, but then you get the Celtics. With the five, you get Milwaukee (or maybe Indiana) who are more beatable in theory than the Knicks and then the Cavaliers. There’s no real win there.
Prefer To Play: Indiana, Boston
Prefer To Avoid: Milwaukee, Cleveland
Boston only because they have a much closer result set vs. them than against the Cavaliers or Milwaukee. Milwaukee is just like a mega-version of the Pistons.
I like the idea of Pistons-Knicks but it might also just be a bloodletting by a more experienced and better team in New York. Everything’s gravy for the Pistons anyway.
THE PLAY-IN TOURNAMENT
Hawks and Magic
Hawks magic number for play-in spot is 8, for Magic it is 8. They’re both locks. Even a 5-10, 5-8 finish will get them in.
Hawks
Prefer To Play: Knicks, Cavaliers, Pacers
Prefer To Avoid: Celtics, Pistons
The Hawks somehow have multiple win vs. all three top East teams. Just a weirdo team. The Cavs, theoretically, could suffer with the expectations and maybe let Atlanta catch them into a longer series? Boston snuffs them. They are unlikely to play New York but that’s probably the best option.
Magic
Prefer To Play: Celtics, Pistons
Prefer To Avoid: Cavaliers, Bucks
The Magic’s overall numbers and record vs. Boston is unremarkable and poor, because Boston beats everyone. But the matchups are difficult. The Magic are one of the only teams that can prevent threes from the Celtics and that gets them out of their gameplan. I have zero confidence the Magic can find enough offense, but it would be annoying for the Celtics.
HEAT-BULLS-RAPTORS
I don’t think any of these teams really want to make the play-in. Miami is in a terminal velocity tailspin. The Bulls just kind of run around. The Raptors really don’t seem like they want to make it with the rest patterns but also they might make it anyway?
I don’t think any of these teams reach the postseason.