The Most Valuable MVP Tiers: Mythical Heroes

Curry stays Curry, Sengun stat hijinx, and what to do with Wemby

The Most Valuable MVP Tiers breaks down who would win if the award was voted on today, which it’s not, because that would be weird, and where the vote will be at the end of the season.

This post addresses the A-Tier, or just outside of the ballot. If you want to read the full analysis for the S-Tier contenders, you can find and subscribe here:

I keep waiting for Mitchell to make a push. Can the Cavaliers really be this good, with the improvement on the offensive end and a defensive slide, and Mitchell not really have as much to do with it as other candidates?

And yet there it is, 24-5-5 on 45-41 splits.

Even Mitchell’s on-court net rating at +10.3 barely passes Jokic and falls behind Shai, Tatum, and Luka in the S-tier.

I think Mitchell will have a month where he goes bonkers and probably get into this conversation by the end. It will be a case where he wasn’t elite when the Cavaliers were (during this first two-month stretch) but the final resume will show 55-plus wins, a top-two seed, and great numbers.

But right now, I wouldn’t object if you’d rather have Darius Garland or Evan Mobley on here as a Cavs representative.

Brunson leads this group in scoring and assists, and is right behind Steph for eFG%. The Knicks’ offense is also a lot better than the Warriors’ despite a typically vintage Curry season.

He’s definitively the best MVP candidate on the Knicks but Karl-Anthony Towns is going to take up a lot of the ink with how great his season has been. Brunson’s also played five more games than Curry, and if Steph starts to miss more games, Brunson can slide ahead of him.

Let’s look at the EPM:

You’ll notice Sengun leads in BPM above and yet is third in EPM. That’s the rebound and assist advantages I talked about with Jokic in the other post. Sengun is a Jokic-type, if there is such a thing. He’s been great defensively and deserves credit for it, but that’s the stronger unit for Houston and he’s not in the top four of the best defenders.

Curry’s box score numbers aren’t wowing anyone, but he remains one of the most impactful offensive players we’ve ever seen. As evidence, Curry is 2nd to Jokic in on/off halfcourt offensive impact at Cleaning The Glass, with the halfcourt offense 19.4 points better per 100 possessions with Curry on the floor.

He still bends the defense in ways no one outside of Jokic really does. But the box score contributions and the general “What the hell are they doing?” of the Warriors who change their rotations every time a stiff breeze blows through the Bay make him a Tier 2 guy.

This is definitely catnip for those that always want to lift up Curry even when he doesn’t actually do the things.

“Even when he doesn’t shoot or score, he’s the best!”

OK, but you also have to do the thing. If Curry starts doing the thing? He’ll be Tier 1 and knocking out someone. (Probably Giannis, which is nuts because Giannis has been amazing. Really strong MVP class so far this year.)

The missing name here is Franz Wagner who stepped up so big with Banchero out but suffered an oblique injury Friday. Just brutal news for a player who was cashing in on all the stock us League Pass junkies have invested in for years.

I also have no idea what to do with this:

Wembanyama’s advanced metrics are ridiculous. His box score number outside of blocks are pedestrian.

I’m workshopping this, but Wembanyama may legitimately be Defensive Steph Curry. Even when he doesn’t do anything, his presence shapes the game like no one else on that end of the floor.

The halfcourt offense is actually slightly worse with Wembanyama on the court, and that’s going to matter. His efficiency isn’t great, and that’s going to matter. The Spurs are 12-12 and look like a .500 team and that’s going to matter.

But if the best basketball is ahead of him, and if he starts to sharpen what is still a very sloppy offensive game, it’s going to be hard to keep him out of the S-tier conversations.