The Pelican Fallacy (And More Trade Hearsay)
Your time is NOT now
The Pelicans will probably do nothing after they did too much.
You are probably aware that the Pelicans traded their unprotected first-round pick last summer for the pick that became Derik Queen, who’s awesome. It was a bad process trade, but it had a great result.
Now, though, the Pelicans are 13-39 with the 25th-ranked non-garbage-time point net rating1.
There is no player with whom they win their minutes when they are on the floor.
I don’t think things are bleak in New Orleans; quite the opposite, I think Fears and Queen can grow into something really fun if they have the right approach to their careers.2
My problem, however, is that the front office, even the new one, continues to be too optimistic.
Chris Haynes reported last month that the Pelicans are not expected to trade Zion Williamson, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, or the rookies. Of course they’re not trading the rookies; that would be suicide.
It’s the others that are baffling.
Let’s put Zion in a little box to the side because that’s more about teams not wanting to take on the enormous risk of his attitude and health concerns3.
But there’s no reason for them to keep Jones and Murphy.
Jones is 27, he’s entering the back half of his NBA career and his true prime. Murphy is 25, he’s about to hit that ramp up to his prime and will be a much better player in three years than he is now.
Both of these statements make it obvious why they should keep him. “They’re going to be great players, and having great players is great! Yay!”
Having great players is great when you’re ready.
The Pelicans are nowhere near ready, and they won’t be ready by the time they exit their primes.
The Pelicans can build something sustainable, but it’s going to take three years. Three years, not just to rebuild the culture behind the right coach—whether that’s Borrego or someone else — once you find them, three years to develop Queen and Fears and move them into a place where they’re ready to win, three years to build the foundations that set a floor for team performance.
Yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder won with a ridiculously young core. It also was the product of a decade of work since KD left. Even when they were gunning with Russ, they were setting the foundation. Even when they went to the playoffs with Chris Paul, they were drafting and developing the players they needed. And they tanked two years and then transitioned.
This stuff doesn’t just happen and in the rare instances where it does, it often blips back into nothingness. A good example is the Suns, who had a blip with Goran Dragic post-Nash-Amar’e and then fell back into the lottery for a good, long time.
Still, sources around the league has said the message they get from the Pelicans is they believe they have a playoff roster they just need the right combination of coaching and development to unlock it.
What bums me out about this is that Herb Jones and Trey Murphy would be phenomenal on a lot of teams. If you add Murphy to Detroit and pair him with Cade and Ausar, you have a devastating 1-2-3 combo of defense and shooting. If you move Herb Jones to the Lakers, LA starts to look a lot more legit.
Instead, these players just hang around, getting paid great money but never playing serious competitive basketball until they’re in their 30s, and then it’s too late.
I’m not suggesting the Pelicans need to move them for the sake of moving them. I am suggesting that they get fair market return that boosts them in their chosen direction.
Memphis dragged three first-round picks out of Jaren Jackson, a player who is constantly criticized for his rebounding and foul trouble despite his accomplishments. Jones and Murphy are cheaper and beloved by the metrics.
They are keeping Murphy and Jones for that great day when they’re ready to compete. When will that be? You’ve already waited for things to click with Zion. Queen and Fears are still figuring out what they’re doing.
On some level, all you’re doing is wasting time. Yours, the players, the league’s.
When Sam Presti took over the Sonics, he had All-Star level talent. He liquidated all of it. Rashard Lewis was 28 when he was dealt to Orlando. Presti has never held onto players just to hold onto them. That needs to be the Pelicans’ model.
TRADE HEARSAY
On Giannis…
The Bucks continue to signal they’re going to wait through the deadline, take all the offers and then jack them up over the summer. You know, what Nico Harrison should have done.
