Boston Celtics Offseason Review: Nothing Gold Can Stay

Can Boston survive a gap year?

Sophie Gerasimenko For Unsplash

Offseason capsules for all 30 teams with thoughts on the good and the bad.

TL;DR Boston Celtics

• Salary dumped Kristaps Porzingis for Georges Niang and a 2nd

• Moved Jrue Holiday for Anfernee Simons

• Signed Luka Garza (2 years, $5.5 million)

• Signed Josh Minott (2 years, $5 million)

• Got out of the second apron, reset the books prepared for the gap year pain

ADDITIONS

• Simons is the big get of the offseason.

  • I’ve been lower on Simons since he emerged than other people, because he’s just not the kind of player I tend to find impactful.

    • But his assist percentage has improved to 86th percentile

    • He was 75th percentile in pick and roll situations, including passes.

  • The idea is that you add a shooter like this to Boston and “Look out!”

    • What, are they going to take MORE threes? Be even MORE dependent on those shots?

    • He was only 36 percent from three, 57th percentile. He’s not elite.

      • Now, maybe the argument is that the Blazers’ offense was the problem and he’ll make a big jump. This is the same kind of gamble that teams like the Pacers and Thunder made with Tyrese Haliburton and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, though Simons is older.

  • The defensive downgrade is significant.

    • When a player has bad defensive numbers on a good defensive team, it should be concerning.

      • Simons was 12th percentile in defensive EPM on a good defensive team. For comparison, Jalen Green was 25th percentile on a better one.

  • You can’t judge the move harshly because they moved off of Jrue¹ to deal with the second apron, but I don’t view it as a major swing. I’m open to being wrong, but I’m very meh on the long-term outcome here.

• Niang’s impact numbers are never as bad as it feels like his minutes are.

  • He’s got a little bit of creation. He’s 41 percent from three. He’s got some rebounding. He can do a lot of things, and the numbers don’t scream that he’s damaging, but it feels like it a lot.

  • Boston is banking that they can get the most out of him and they’re pretty good at doing just that.

• Love the Garza and Minott fliers. I think both of them were better than their role in Minnesota and were just on too good of a team to get to show it. Minott in particular I’ve been enamored with since the draft.

  • These were both low-cost, high upside moves for a team in position to play those guys.

  • Boston being in a position to use this season to explore and experiment with who can hit is how they should approach this year.

LOSSES

• The losses of Jrue Holiday and Porzingis are just depressing.

  • Porzingis was hailed as the difference maker for Boston in finally winning a championship, and you can argue that even with relatively few games, the games he did help were huge.

    • Him not getting to have a redemption season to make up for whatever this bizarre illness year was is a real kick in the nuts. He had frustrated fans but it will always feel like Porzingis could have given the Celtics more if his body were able.

  • Jrue getting to have the last laugh after the Bucks bailed on him for Dame is a great story and I’m very happy he got to have that moment. He’s meant so much to so many franchises (Pelicans, Bucks, Celtics).

  • More than anything, this is the ultimate proof of the CBA’s prohibitive state. If any team had the market, money, and organizational culture to pay to win, it should be Boston, and they couldn’t deal with it.

    • Check out this Stevens quote courtesy of the Athletic.

“I think the second apron basketball penalties are real, and I’m not sure I understood how real until they were staring me in the face in the last month, So I do think that it can’t be overstated.” - Brad Stevens