Hit First, Hit Fastest, Hit Hardest, Hit Last: The NBA Conference Finals
Thoughts on the Final Four

Today’s edition will be lists of things in my brain about the conference finals in an easy-to-read-on-your-phone-while-dozing-or-using-the-restroom format. If you want more from me, check out…
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: FRIENDS IN LOW PLACES
Things I Think About The Pacers:
Have said this before; they’re an early 80’s punk band. They come in, they fuck shit up, they go to another town, they come in, they fuck shit up. Repeat. Their relentlessness has not been something any team has shown an adjustment to.
Indiana hits first, hits fastest, hits hardest, hits last.
We get confused on pace and tempo. Pace is how many possessions you create. Tempo is how quickly you play in your sets.
The Knicks have more transition possessions per game and in percentage of time than the Pacers do.
The Pacers aren’t top-five in the playoffs in shortest time of possession.
Indiana has the fewest playoff shots with 22 seconds or more on the clock.
The Pacers have the most shots with 7-4 seconds left on the clock in the playoffs.
It’s Tempo, Not Pace. This isn’t Seven Seconds or Less. They get into their sets with 18 on the clock and make you execute. This is something the mid-2010’s Spurs were elite at. Make the defense pick you up within four seconds or it’s a blow-by, then make them work for the duration of the clock. Most defenses can’t do that.
New York’s fairly-newly implemented switch scheme might slow them down. Indiana is a bit unconventional in how they attack mismatches. The Cavs kept switching Jarrett Allen onto Haliburton, and instead of him roasting that matchup, he let Nembhard, Siakam, and TJ work the weakside while he drew the rim protector out. That works with the single-big lineups with Mitchell Robinson, but not sure how the double-big lineup works. Though if they put Robinson on Turner that allows for the pick and pop and for Nembhard to attack Towns.
We might see some pretty wild crossmatches.
Turner gets a lot more random threes than he does in pick-and-pops; the Pacers don’t really spam actions as a Carlisle imperative. But if they stash Robinson or Towns on him, he’ll get open corner threes.
I’m not sure about Nembhard in this series. Bridges is a great defender to put on him, and if they need Bridges on Haliburton, Hart can do fine. Miles McBride can likely contribute in this series more than the Celtics series as well.
The Pacers have the second-highest foul rate among playoff teams. If they let Brunson do his thing, it’s gonna get dicey.
They’re going to get smashed on the glass, no way around it. They play too much to the perimeter and are too undersized. It’s going to have to be efficiency for Indiana vs. extra possessions for New York.
I don’t know if the Pacers are as good as they’ve looked. They’ve shot well above expectation (highest eFG% and eFG% differential from expected in the playoffs per Cleaning The Glass). I know that they match up well here, have been the best coached, and execute at a higher level.
Things I think about the Knicks:
The two-big lineups are going to be tough defensively but Indiana doesn’t have a counter on the defensive glass.
As always “If the Knicks run the Brunson-KAT pick and roll, they can absolutely slice” which they won’t do because, reasons.
The Pacers will likely put Nembhard on Brunson for key stretches/clutch time even if they start with Nesmith. Nembhard is likely to get in foul trouble, and Brunson is likely to just score a lot on relatively inefficient attempts because that’s what the Pacers will give.
This is going to be such a massive Josh Hart series. The Pacers allow the most cuts per game of any team remaining in the playoffs. Hart is the Knicks’ best cutter.
They won’t do this, but I really hope the Knicks use some mechanisms to get OG in the post with switches. He’s too good not to use more and they’ve really failed to incorporate him offensively. He’s a bruiser. The Pacers play physical and OG is a great counter to return fire.
I don’t know if the Knicks are as good as a conference finals team, either. They did a lot to put Boston in the position to melt down, but Boston still melted down. They had a 111 offensive rating against a good Boston defense that was a. better than Indiana’s and b. playing at a high level but still had a lot of weaknesses that they didn’t exploit.
I like the Knicks’ potential gameplan a lot more than their actual gameplan.
If Towns, Robinson, and Brunson get Turner in foul trouble, those games are going to get away from Indiana in a hurry.
If there’s a loose whistle and they allow more contact like they have in these playoffs, then that tilts away from Brunson. He’ll still get his, but the impact will be a lot less.
PREDICTION: Pacers in 6
My confidence level in Pacers winning in some amount of games is somewhere between 50 and 60 percent.1 Every indicator I have says that the Pacers are better… but those also said the Celtics were better and here we are. The Knicks don’t have to be better, they have to be better four times out of seven with homecourt.
But Indiana has shown so much in terms of how they play and how uncomfortable they make teams. The Knicks just played their Super Bowl, toppling the defending champs which is the team they were designed to beat. This Indiana team is wildly different and hard to adjust to.
I’m happy for whoever comes out of this. The good Knicks fans I know are such good fans that have just wanted something to root for for 25 years and while I’m always against big market supremacy, the joy those fans would feel for making the Finals would be terrific. Indiana is one of my favorite franchises, period, from their ABA history through Reggie, through the PG era against the Heat. I like the way Herb Simon loves books and hates tanking and is fine with having a good team.
But I’ll take Pacers.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: BARE KNUCKLES AND SAWDUST
Things I Think About The Thunder:
The Thunder can win this with offense if the open shooters knock down shots or defense if they can force turnovers. The pathway for them to be in danger is if the bad shooting from role guys continues and the Wolves limit their turnovers while finding and making the threes that OKC allows.
Jalen Williams is going to have a tremendous series. He shaped the game a lot vs. Denver and that was vs. a tougher matchup in Aaron Gordon. He also just missed shots in part because of a wrist injury that seems to be healing. He’s going to go off in this series.
Chet will have to absorb a lot of big shoulder bumps in this series. You can knock him off his spot and he can still block it, but just getting him out of position will cause more help from OKC which can lead to turnovers or fouls.
OKC is the first defense I can remember where I can honestly say it is not up to you to contain turnovers. They have to fail or get called for fouls. That’s how good they are. It’s not just deflections and steals in passing lanes. It’s things like “deflecting the pass at the point of attack when a guy picks up his dribble” and “just taking the ball out of a guy’s hands on a drive.”
The whistle matters a ton; I want the officials to call it as Bloodsport, but OKC needs it. They are a top-five foul team in the regular season and playoffs. In Game 6 vs. Denver, the Nuggets got into the bonus and ate there the whole game. If the Wolves can use their size to pick up a few extra fouls and Ant can grift a bit, OKC’s going to have a hard time defensively, even as good as they are.
Caruso was a huge factor in the Nuggets’ series and will find ways to impact things here, but the matchups are a little different. Ant feels bigger, but also, Jokic is bigger, and, well. Ant was 0-of-4 in the regular season guarded by Caruso.
This will not be a Jaylin Williams series like last round was. The Wolves have too much frontcourt depth and will need to likely counter by going small in the non-two-big lineups.
Things I Think About The Wolves:
I’m really curious which direction Finch goes here:
Do you let Shai cook? Play a high drop with Rudy, close off the angles, focus on not fouling him (the hardest part) while contesting from behind, and stay home on the weakside shooters and lob threats?
Rudy really helps with that last part, he can play high drop and still just snatch the lob out of the air.
Or do you go “Anybody But Shai” and blitz him more? The Wolves basically played high drop with Gobert, sometimes sending an extra defender, while hedging/blitzing with Naz. I wonder if the Wolves will try and get him to attack Naz more. I think Gobert can be useful (see above) but also it’s hard to mentally and emotionally deal with a guy having 40.
Love this series for Julius Randle. It’s going to be tough, but whoever gets the better between him and JDub is going to go a long way in winning this series. JDub is big and athletic, he’s got more burst than LeBron or Draymond at this point, so he might be able to block more of Randle’s drives. But Randle’s been a decent 35% from 3. Can he force JDub out of the help spots? Can he get a better shoulder bump on him than AG could?
Jaden McDaniels has been huge in the last two rounds. He’s been incredible in being a difference maker offensively. That’s gotta continue because OKC is gonna give him the Westbrook treatment. He’s got to make them pay.
OKC is going to give the Wolves threes. The Wolves will take threes. Make them, and you’re live. Miss them, and the Thunder will bury you with turnover rate.
The Wolves have been so much better at not turning it over in the playoffs but as I said above, I don’t trust anyone to avoid turnovers vs. this defense.
Shai has obliterated NAW in his matchups this season. I would definitely focus more on having NAW as a help defender vs. the Thunder shooters, maybe even have him match up with Chet a few times to throw some medicine back at OKC.
I’m not sure if this is a Hartenstein series or not. Rudy’s so good at containing pick and roll that the floater game seems unlikely. I actually think they should bring iHart off the bench and have him play vs. Naz, where Naz plays at-level and OKC can use iHart on the short roll.
PREDICTION: THUNDER IN 6
I love this Wolves team and it would be such a great story. I’d give a lung for Mike Conley to win a ring. And I think the Wolves are going to win Game 1 and put them behind again. But I also think OKC has learned enough from the Nuggets series to recover, and the matchups are so much worse for Ant than they are for Shai. That, plus a big JDub series, puts the Thunder back in the Finals for the first time since 2012.
OK if you want to get exact, it’s 57% by my betting model.
"I like the Knicks’ potential gameplan a lot more than their actual gameplan."
Totally agree. Thibodeau drives me crazy sometimes, but it sure feels like this playoff run has iced his seat quite thoroughly.