Incoming/Outgoing: It's NBA Moving Season
Thoughts on the early offseason changes
So with the Finals ending, and then two days before the draft, and then everything else in between, I’m late catching up. Here are my thoughts on the many things that have happened, from Kevin Durant’s trade to the Suns’ whatever to the Celtics’ reimaginings to the draft.
SURELY IT WILL WORK THIS TIME: THE KEVIN DURANT STORY
There is no more maddening NBA career than Kevin Durant’s.
It’s Great, to be sure. Two-time champion. Two-time Finals MVP. Fifteen-time All-Star. Eleven-time All-NBA. Four-time Olympic Gold medalist. Olympic MVP. FIBA Gold medalist.
Certified. I’ve gone so far as to say I think KD is the best — not greatest— player I’ve ever seen. His individual skill set is unmatched. He’s seven feet tall, 50-40-90, 50 percent from midrange, still slamming at 36, a top-end defender and an underrated passer.
But, man. Three teams in just over two years.
The last chapter is the most important one, however. And maybe this time it will end with Durant reminding us how truly Great he has always been. If he wins a title with Houston, it will reshape how we think of him.
Maybe he really did just need the right organization, the right coach, the right team around him.
It’s fair to doubt it. He’s 37 next season. He would tie Jason Kidd and Kareem for second-oldest player (behind Kareem at 39 lololol) to win a championship playing 30 minutes per night, presuming he does.
He has not made teammates better, at least not in concrete, discernible, tangible, quantifiable ways.
The best thing about Durant is that he is plug-and-play. You can put him on all 30 NBA teams at one forward spot or the other, and he’ll do what he does without obstructing how the rest of the team plays. Durant never gets in the way of your team being great or the best it can be.
The problem has been that he can’t be the engine that makes your team great. He can help the engine, but he can’t be the propulsion system itself.
With the Rockets, it’s possible the defense can be that, the way OKC’s defense was for Shai. The defense gets you to the doorstep, KD gets you home.
The Rockets may not be done. They still have all of the Suns’ picks — we’ll get to that in a minute— and they can still use Sengun, Jabari, or if somehow a gem beyond a gem comes available, Amen Thompson.1
But for now, defense and KD are enough to give them a serious shot in May at the West title.
Have You Ever Seen The Sun Set At 3 PM?
It kind of sucks that this is how it’s going for Ishbia. His biggest crime is wanting to do whatever it takes to win a championship.
Kevin Durant is awesome and should help you move closer to a title. But they broke up the core that had the formula, who made the Finals in 2021, and nothing was ever the same again.
Ishbia didn’t come in and start slashing salary. He didn’t come in and worry about the business side. He made things more affordable for fans and traded for a megastar and then another trade for a guy who finished second in scoring in 2022. These are things you should want your owner to do! Or at least, to do them in 2017.
But it’s not 2017. It’s 2025. The league is different and you need three good five-man units with versatility.
This trade… did not accomplish that.
It would be one thing for the Suns to not get Amen Thompson or Alperen Sengun — again, I don’t know what would have to be the offer for Amen the Rockets would be unable to say no to and I think Udoka’s trust in Sengun is still a little shaky but he’s still their best player— but to not get Jabari Smith Jr. or Tari Eason or Reed Sheppard?
It’s one thing to not get all your picks back—that was never going to happen for a 37-year-old on an expiring contract — but to not get anything but your own No.10 this year?
Taking Jalen Green as the centerpiece here is rough. The jury is still out on if Green is going to be a No.1 option, a sixth-man, or something in the middle.
I think taking shots on guys coming off their rookie deals before the second extension is a good move. I wouldn’t call this a buy-low situation, but taking a flyer on him to grow into his game is a gamble worth taking for a team that needs a shot in the arm.
But to do it for Durant? That’s your marquee return?
Jalen was ranked 97th in offensive EPM this season, 22nd among players with less than five years of service.
Let me put it this way: Jalen was given the keys to the Rockets from Day One, and right now Trey Murphy who had to scrap between Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and Herb Jones for positioning, is a much more valuable player.
The picks are the bigger issue: Houston still owns their future. They can still leverage and squeeze Phoenix in an attempt to pry Booker out of there. Had you secured more than one of your picks, you’d have the firepower in the market to back them off some.
Devin Booker was a certified superstar two seasons ago. He went toe to toe with Jokic in that second round series. Now he’s an afterthought in the West. He wants to retire as the greatest Sun, and I think that’s awesome. But they are risking that future unless they can find some sort of black or grey swan to course course correct.
Maybe that’s Maluach, but as of now, the Suns seem buried in purgatory.
BOSTON’S LONG GAME
So I don’t love the Anfernee Simons fit. No one ever likes the Georges Niang fit.
Simons is basically older, worse Jalen Green.
The roster looks something like:
PG: Derrick White
SG: Anfernee Simons
SF: Jaylen Brown
PF: Niang? Horford?
C: Kornet? Horford?
There might be more. Baylor Schierman might be ready for more. They might put Xavier Tillman back into the rotation.2 Jordan Walsh, theoretically, could be ready.
I have little doubt that Stevens will put them back into position to contend when Tatum returns. But his comments after the trades and draft should be revealing in regards to what this new CBA means for teams, even well-run ones like Boston’s.
“I think the second apron basketball penalties are real, and I’m not sure I understood how real until they were staring me in the face in the last month.” - Brad Stevens
What you should not do is think the Celtics “got better.” They put themselves in a better position to win a title in the future, but their team is worse.
Jrue had started to slide. That’s obvious. Simons will likely have better advanced numbers than Holiday next season because their situations are different. But even with a significant decline for Jrue, his impact is still significant.
Jrue fell off a cliff and was still much more impactful than Holiday. Now, these numbers will typically — not always but typically — correlate with team success. Eight Celtics rotation players fill in on the combined list between the two teams in EPM before you hit a Blazers player.
“Player on good team looks good, player on bad team looks bad, news at 11.”
But if you go by Estimated Wins which factors impact based on minutes and games, some Blazers start popping before you get to Simons.
The notion has been “Oh, but Simons in that system shooting threes!”
Simons was 37.8 percent last season on catch-and-shoot jumpers. Fine. Not great. Just OK. He was 34.8 percent on pull-up jumpers, which was 52nd among 149 players with at least 100 3-point attempts off the dribble. Pretty good.
So Simons can replace some of the pick and roll pull-up scoring that Tatum provided, but of course a good question is whether that’s the offense you want. You need guys who can score to create gravity to enable the best shots (which are Derrick White and Payton Pritchard spot-up threes), but does Simons accomplish that?
Bear in mind, the Celtics do not turn their guys into incredible shooters. They just create volume. They are great shooters on the volume they generate and that’s an area where Simons could really pop and they wind up looking like geniuses. But he’s not an elite shooter.
Was Simons’ offense underwhelming because of the Blazers’ weapons? Were the Blazers’ weapons underwhelming because of Simons’ offense? Both? Neither?
It’s an interesting question to answer in a gap year for Boston.
One last Boston note… Brooklyn, Utah, and Houston were teams I heard that made what they felt were serious offers for Jaylen Brown. It’s no surprise that the Celtics shared after that the negotiations were never serious. The Celtics didn’t say no immediately when teams called for Brown and White.
But Boston’s investor value in those two was never going to be realistically reachable for any team. They are not going to view Brown and Tatum as “five first-round pick” guys. They will view them as “as valuable as your All-NBA superstar.” And they get to do that.
I will continue to wonder what Jaylen would look like somewhere else, and believe that all 29 other teams would benefit from having White. But I think those will remain hyptotheticals. Exciting ideas that will never lead to anything.
THE NBA DRAFT IN 30 SECONDS
There were rumors early that Danny Ainge liked Bailey and wanted to trade up to 3 to get him. When Austin Ainge took over, the tune changed and it was thought they were fine with Fears. Was Austin always in on Bailey? Did the elder Ainge exert influence? Was it ownership?
I don’t mind them taking him despite his reservations. Take the best guy. If you had a good thing going, you needed to not draft Ace (Wizards). But the Jazz don’t, so it’s fine.
The Harper-Castle thing is going to get awkward.
I didn’t freak out over the Pels’ move as much. Here’s why.
Trading up 10 spots with an unprotected 26 first is bad. No question.
They can absolutely wind up giving Atlanta an incredible pick and it was a no-brainer move for the Hawks.
But they really believe that last year was about injuries and that Trey Murphy III is their guy. I don’t think you can go into ever year expecting to be without $50 to $75 million in salary every night. You need to improve your training staff to lower those numbers, which is an ownership issue, but I get it.
Two years ago, they won 49 games. They are younger. They bought low on Jordan Poole, who you would not believe the numbers on his pull-up shooting last year.3 And if Murphy makes the leap as their guys come into their primes, this team can avoid giving a top-ten pick and then it’s fine.
I am all the way in on the Wizards. All. The Way. These guys are much better than anyone realizes. I don’t think they’re a playoff team. I think they can win 30 games with upside and will find one of their guys is a star. I want to believe.
I literally do not know what player they would offer Amen for. Would you do it for Giannis? Probably not, right? Not enough upside. Cade? Probably not, not enough instant championship equity. What exactly is the trade value of Amen Thompson right now?
I do not understand how he was a good pickup in 2024, they used him in THE FINALS and then he just disappears this season. I get it, the numbers with Kornet were great. But really? Out of the rotation?
Fifth-highest points per possession mark on pull-up jumpers in the league last season, 1.22 per possession! He was right behind Steph!