MVP Tier 1 Update 12/22: Let's Talk About Defense

What we talk about when we talk about actually guarding guys

Welcome back to the MVP Update! Today we’ll talk about the top tier of guys in the conversation, which remains the same as last week, and we’ll dive a little bit more into the discussion of defense and the role it plays and should or should not play in the award.

First, our top tier remains the same. Jayson Tatum is sliding and will probably be Tier 2 by the next time we do the update. But for now, I’m keeping him Tier 1.

Giannis leads in scoring and has tied Jokic in eFG% which is impressive considering how many of his shots are heavily contested. Giannis’ mid-range is cooking, and that changes so much about how teams can guard him. Just a few more of those possessions being converted is huge.

But the big discussion this week is defense.

TWO PLAYS AIN’T NOTHIN’

As always, when I talk about MVP before I put in the final analysis in March, my biggest issues are with arguments, not reasonable positions.

It’s totally fine to have any of those guys as your MVP currently. There are good arguments to be made for each of them, and I can put together pretty decent ones for most of the Tier 2 guys as well. Everything else is about how strong the argument is.

I care about the way we talk about these things more than I care about the ultimate call.

Two basketball plays happened this week.

Giannis did what Giannis does, making an absolutely incredible, amazing, awesome block on Clint Capela on the roll to deny the Hawks in a key situation in a game with stakes in it (and a regular season game).

That’s just an amazing block from one of the five best defenders of his generation.

(Also, I’m equally impressed by Brook Lopez who contains Young in high drop and then rotates down and would have gotten the block, too.)

Meanwhile, here’s Nikola Jokic just completely letting Russell Westbrook get torched for the gamewinner.

Jokic is trying to get Murray to help over. Clearly, Westbrook should have played to Simons’ right to force him left. Jokic has to cover the corner as well. None of that changes the fact that he’s too slow in reaction and foot speed to correctly help. That’s a shot he has to help on, and he doesn’t.

This is being used as proof of… I’m not sure, something… with Bucks fans to prove that Giannis is the MVP and Jokic is a fake stats padder.

The argument is either:

a. these two plays prove that Giannis is a great defender and Jokic is a garbage one and so Giannis is MVP

or

b. these plays are indicative of the gap between them defensively, which given Giannis’ at least comparable offensive output, proves Giannis is the MVP

Now, the first one is really not worth considering. It’s bad from the start.

For example, let’s take two different plays. Here’s Giannis getting absolutely cooked by LaMelo Ball in isolation coverage.

And here’s Jokic making a block on a potential game-tying bucket from Jonathan Kuminga.

Now, would I use those two plays as evidence that Jokic is a better defender?

Of course not, that would be incredibly stupid.

Would I use those two plays as evidence that the gap is narrow between the two, since they both can and have made key defensive plays this season?

No, because that would be incredibly stupid.

That’s why you shouldn’t try and use two plays as evidence of anything. The conclusion isn’t wrong. The process of getting there is.

A BORING, LONG JOB

One of the biggest issues with Defensive Player of the Year is that the time it takes to really gauge a player’s defense is enormous. You need to watch hours and hours of possessions they’re involved in and plays where they’re on the floor but not directly involved because you need to see if they fail to contribute in key ways.

And you kind of need to do it for MVP, too.

I’ve done it. I try and do it every year for the major candidates. I’ll do it this season.¹

And going in, I’ll know that Giannis is an all-world defender and Jokic a below-average one. Jokic in his best defensive season grades out as “pretty good, definitely above neutral.” This year I would grade him out as “pretty bad, a slight negative.”

Jokic this season is less committed to help. He’s less active at the level of the screen, which really hurts Denver’s scheme. He doesn’t throw himself into plays.

Denver fans will point to the incredible burden that he carries on offense, to which I say, “Heavy is the crown.” The other MVP candidates have similar offensive burdens. Turns out the NBA is hard, I don’t know what else to tell you.

Giannis, on the other hand, battles on every possession. He covers up weak side protection. He shuts down dominant ballhandlers and bodies big men. He’s a monster, and the effort he puts in on that end should never be taken for granted.

The gap between these two players is one reason why I think the mantle for “Best In The World” is way closer than Nuggets fans think. Giannis bends the game on both ends of the floor like the Hulk bending a steel bar. Jokic is one of the most impactful offensive players of all time. Giannis is one of the most impactful two-way players of all time.

But this is the big problem: MVP is not Best in the World. It’s a resume award.

You have to judge it based on the games played and the results of those games. That’s why we award it each season.

Now, you can do this without metrics. You can just go through and watch all these games and/or possessions, and then grade them based on your eye test, and you’ll have something resembling an eye test record of evidence to judge these things on.

I think if you want to be serious about this? Then you should. But most folks don’t have time for that. ²

But otherwise, you’re just going to fall victim to selection bias, confirmation bias, and recency bias. There’s no way for you to be able to retain a substantive assessment of an NBA player’s defense from just watching a few games.

THE PART WHERE I USE THE SPREADSHEETS LIKE A NERD

So that’s why we use data. Or “spreadsheets” or whatever other stupid dismissive term you want to throw in. It’s just evidence. That’s it. You can prove that these are the numbers. The numbers need context, and you need to cross-check them with multiple things.

But it’s actually, literally the record of what has happened.

The reason to use defensive numbers— and you need a lot of them to get anything close to a good picture— isn’t to figure out who’s a better defender. Common sense and the practice of watching basketball for more than 20 minutes will at least point you in that direction.³

We know that Giannis is a better defender than the rest of this field. It is probably:

1. Giannis

2. Shai

3. Tatum

4. A GIGANTIC, UNBELIEVABLE GAP

5. Jokic

6. Luka⁴

But what has been the impact of that defense? If you defend at a great level, but your team still sucks on defense, what did you do? Not make it worse? Hold it to a low standard? This is where people will try the on-off differentials argument, but as always, I maintain that what happens when you’re off the floor doesn’t matter in the slightest.

When I’m doing defensive analysis, I try and cross reference as much information as possible. I want to know how a player does individually, how the team performs with him and without him, and what the advanced metrics say. I actually care less about the advanced metrics (for reasons I’ll talk about) than the straight defensive rating results.

If you’re a crappy defender but the team is great with you on the floor, what does it matter? Did you prevent them from being a bad defense? No. Conversely, if you’re a great defender and the team sucks with you on the floor on defense, what exactly did you do? Congrats on locking down your man and making some weakside blocks while the team got killed.

That last part touches on a central thing I had to decide in MVP analysis: A lot of stuff isn’t fair.

Is Giannis the reason his defensive rating is higher than the others? Of course not. Is Shai the reason the Thunder are on pace for one of the best defensive ratings we’ve ever seen? Not the biggest reason, certainly, even if his defense has been great.

This is where fans want to say you can’t hold players responsible for their teams. But to do so ignores the fact that when a team succeeds and a player plays great, you want to credit them. You can’t just say that when a team struggles despite you being individually good it’s irrelevant but when a team thrives because they made 25 threes it’s because of your gravity.

So let’s look at the numbers, the actual evidence, and the record of evidence defensively this season. This chart is sorted by on-court defensive rating in non-garbage time per Cleaning The Glass:

NOTE: Synergy Data is Halfcourt Offense only.

Takeaways:

• Shai is an absolute monster and probably not getting enough credit on that end. Even individually, he’s a demon.

• I’m going to be honest with you: I throw out Defensive BPM. It’s so heavily impacted by rebounds that it gets difficult to get a real sense of it.

• However… DPOY has largely always been impacted by rebounds. We acknowledge that a rebound is the end of a possession. I think rebounds matter, just not as much as BPM tends to.

• By that same perspective, EPM is impacted by the rebound impact as well. That’s why Jokic is always so stellar on this. You have to understand what these metrics are measuring, which is how the box score production impacts the game. So if Giannis has fewer rebounds, steals, and blocks, that’s going to impact things. He has fewer rebounds, steals, and blocks combined than Jokic. These things are also not great ways to judge defense.