NBA West Playoff Picture: Razor's Edge
Bracket, projections, and magic numbers

I make projections based on my power rating system accounting for remaining games and win-loss record. It’s SOS-neutral1 but accounts for the actual wins and losses so far instead of projecting where they should finish for the whole season.2
It’s not perfect but it’s done a good job in recent years.
It’s projecting an absolutely razor-thin Western Conference finish from No.2 through No.8.
So one win separates the Lakers in third from the Rockets in the 2-seed with the Nuggets in the middle. Just under two wins for Grizzlies and the two-seed. Just 1.6-games for the Wolves to climb into 5th.
Here’s what that bracket looks like:
The Warriors and Wolves are separated by just 0.6 games by my projections. Warriors own tiebreaker. So if the gap between them closes by a half-win, then the Warriors move over the Wolves. But I’m expecting that to come down to the final week.
This bracket opens a very legitimate path for a seed lower than 3rd to reach the conference finals on that lower bracket. I would have to make the Wolves favored against Denver in a series even with Denver holding homecourt. That’s how bad the matchup still is. It’s somehow worse than last year despite the changes to both teams.
Golden State would be very live vs. Houston. Do you want Steph and Jimmy late in a Game 6 at home or do you want Jalen Green and Sengun?
OKC should handle business in that top bracket, though I would worry substantially about Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves shooting 700 free throws over the course of that series.
I’d wind up with Minnesota vs. OKC for the conference finals, which would be fascinating and a brutal test for the Thunder.
This can all change dramatically over the next two weeks. The Clippers are surging with Kawhi. The Grizzlies continue to struggle. Denver’s defense is a thin candy shell. The Lakers seem to be coming back to earth. Warriors-Wolves is the most interesting battle to me.
Some magic number to peruse and a bit of analysis at the bottom. 3
THUNDER (11 games remaining)
Have clinched everything in the West. They have homecourt throughout the conference playoffs.
Magic number for homecourt through the Finals is 10.
ROCKETS (10 games remaining)
Clinched play-in spot
Magic number for a playoff spot outright is 6
Magic number for homecourt first-round and a top-two seed is 9
NUGGETS (9 games remaining)
Clinched play-in spot
Magic number for playoff spot is 7
Magic number for the 3-seed is 9
Magic number for a top-four seed and first-round homecourt is 10
LAKERS (11 games remaining)
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