The Definitive NBA MVP Case For Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Part 1: The Offense

Or how Shai torched every living being in the NBA.

Getty Images via Unsplash

For Part 2 of this series, click here.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins the most.

That’s the one-sentence case for SGA this season for Most Valuable Player of the National Basketball Association, and it’s a damn good assessment.

No one has won more games this season.

No one has won their minutes in more games this season.

No one has won their minutes by double digits more this season.¹

The point of the NBA is money. The second point of the NBA is competition, to win. And no one has accomplished more winning or contributed to more winning than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season.

If we measure performance as a means to the amount you won rather than how much your team needed you to win, or how much you contributed to winning, there can be no other answer for MVP than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

And if we use those other paradigms? Well, his case holds up there as well.

Let’s start with the cliff notes.

THE SHAI CASE SUMMARIZED

• The player whose play has led to the most wins this season

• The best scorer in the league, hands down

• The best player, by margin, on the league’s best team by margin

• The defining story of the season as written by the Thunder’s historic success

• The engine of the No.4 offense in the league

• The player whose team wins by the most, with him on the floor, by a huge margin

• The player among the serious MVP candidates with the best defensive statistical resume

• Leads the league in EPM, total points, points per game, field goals made, win shares, defensive win shares, win shares per 48 minutes, DARKO, LEBRON, and DRAPM

• The most consistent super-scorer in the league: most games with 30+ points (47), 35+ points (25), 40+ points (12), 45+ points (7), 50+ points (4)

• Second league-wide in box plus-minus, offensive box-plus minus, Value Over Replacement Player

THE OFFENSE

Some numbers for you to consider:

• SGA has made 74 more jump shots off the dribble than the No.2 most this season (Anthony Edwards).

• He has scored 404 more points as of 4/1 than the second-place total points player, Anthony Edwards

• He is one of two players to average over 45 points per 100 possessions while averaging 6 assists per game since 1974, the other being James Harden in 2019

• He is one of three players to average 45 points per 100 possessions or more while playing 35 minutes or fewer per game

• Shai will likely finish as one of three players to record a season averaging 30 points, 6 assists, and 1.5 steals or more while playing less than 35 minutes per night. It will be his second season to do so, and no other player has ever done so twice

• He’s third in scoring efficiency in both pick and roll and isolation sets among players with at least 100 possessions

But the biggest takeaway from watching him?

You can’t stop him.

That’s it. That’s the crux of it. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the Most Dominant force in the NBA in my eyes, and that’s been my case for him (as I make cases for all candidates) for the last six seasons.

But Shai? You can’t stop him. You cannot, under any circumstances, deter him from what he wants to do.

There are excellent comparisons between Shai and Giannis. One uses his size and skill to always set the terms of engagement, and the other uses his control of speed and a vicious yet subtle shoulder bump.

There are layers of Shai’s offense that you have to really examine to understand why he’s unstoppable. He has maybe the best first three steps in all of basketball.² So you can’t keep him from getting to his spot. If you do somehow manage to stay with him, his body control is going to create separation, and if you counter that, he’s going to draw the foul against you by playing against that maneuver.

First off, he has the foot speed to burn just about anyone, including great defenders like Jayson Tatum:

That shoulder bump is so dangerous when he gets going. If you absorb it, he’s got a good chance of drawing a foul. But he can also use it just to get by you. Jaylen Wells has no shot here once Shai hits the bump:

His footwork is immaculate, and allows him to get the turnaround if he loses you for a half-a-second:

If there is one play I think best describes his combination of speed, pace control, and footwork, it’s this one. I’ve watched this one maybe 50 times:

Full-speed stride stop into the turnaround. That ability to stop like that without all your ligaments exploding is insane. ³

Even when he’s off-balance, he’s on-balance. He doesn’t have to be square to hit the shot, but his feet are always in position to get himself where he needs.

Then again, he can also just literally hit shots sideways:

Shai is so quick and his dribble so tight that he is one of the best in the league at turning players parallel to him, shoulder to shoulder. At that point, you’re pretty much doomed because he’s going to move into your parallel arm subtly, and then when he brings his arm up in a legit shooting motion, it’s a foul:

There’s one move, in particular, I want to showcase in how it creates the space Shai needs to get to the pull-up. It’s a push-off, but it’s maybe the sneakiest.

THE DEAD-ARM PUSH-OFF

Every top-level player knows how to exploit the rules to gain an advantage. For as much as Shai is incorrectly labeled a “grifter,” every player has a move or 50 that takes advantage of the game. Joker, Giannis, Embiid, LeBron, everyone.

But the most obvious for Shai is what I’ve called the dead-arm push-off.

Now, the NBA rulebook says you can’t push off in “any way.” Here’s the actual verbiage from a now-archived Video Rulebook on it:

“...the extension of his left arm from elbow to wrist to push off his defender is illegal, and it is an offensive foul. An offensive player may not push off their legal defender in any way.”

But the key here is a. how high Shai raises his arm and b. how limp his arm is from elbow to wrist.

Lots of guys push off in the NBA and Shai’s not the only one to do this, but he is absolutely one of the best with how subtle he is with creating separation only with his upper arm.

He does this all the time to create separation. Here’s Kings phenom defender and reason Mike Brown got fired Keon Ellis trying to hang with him in transition:

The Rockets have so many good defenders and Shai has killed them with this move, like Dillon Brooks here.

COUNTERING BALL-DENIAL

Since you can’t stop Shai when he has the ball, a good idea is to just deny him the ball. But he’s so quick and strong that it usually leads to bad outcomes as well.

The Clippers really tried this strategy.

Not to pick on Tatum, but he tries here on an OREB, a smart idea, and nope.

THE BASELINE

The most lovable part of Shai’s game is his baseline J to me. It’s Kobe-esque.⁴ Go take a look at his shot chart above and how many shots he hits from there.

He can hit some absolutely berserk ones like this one:

The Mavericks crowd him so effectively here, with help from a 7-foot defender in Lively. And he just sticks it.

If you push him middle, he’s going to drive for a layup. If you drive him away from the middle, he kills you with that baseline jumper. It’s just an arsenal.

THE FOUL THING

First off, go read Ben Rohrbach’s excellent debunk of the foul-merchant accusation using challenged foul calls.

You just can’t look at how much he scores without getting fouled to get this to stick. Watch the clips above and understand what a tiny fraction of his made field goals it is.

But look, he does draw a ton of free throws. He leads the league in total and per game. He does get to the line. It’s undeniable.

That’s not a bad thing.